BP 2011 Annual Report Download - page 25

Business review: Group overview
BP Annual Report and Form 20-F 2011 23
Meeting the energy challenge
We estimate that there are enough energy resources available to meet the
increases in demand. As a measure of this availability, today’s oil reserves could
meet more than 45 years of demand at current consumption rates; while known
supplies of natural gas could meet demand for nearly 60 years; and coal could
meet demand for up to 120 years.a Meanwhile, new technologies are improving
the availability and affordability of unconventional fossil resources such as shale
gas, oil sands and coalbed methane. And emerging renewable resources have the
potential for significant growth as their markets mature and technological advances
make them more affordable and efficient.
While energy is available to meet demand, action is also required to limit
the volumes of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases being emitted
through energy use. Global economic challenges have reduced the focus of some
governments on climate policy, at least in the short term. But the position set
out at the UN’s 2010 climate change conference in Cancun that deep cuts are
required to hold global temperature rises to 2˚C, and the commitment by both
developed and developing countries in Durban in 2011 to negotiate an agreement
by 2015 that requires action from all countries, suggests that in the medium to
long term an emphasis on carbon policy will return and grow. We project that
under known and probable policy and technology, global CO2 emissions may be
28% higher in 2030 than they are today, partly as a consequence of coal use in
rapidly-growing economies. More aggressive, but still plausible, energy policy
and technology deployment could lead to slower growth in CO2 emissions than
expected, with emissions from energy use falling after 2020, but probably not
to the extent of putting the world on a global warming trajectory that does not
exceed 2˚C. And even these policies would require concerted multilateral action
from policymakers and a willingness by society to bear a significant cost.
Energy security also represents a major challenge. More than half of the
world’s natural gas is in just three countries, and more than 80% of global oil
reserves are in 10 countries, most of which are located well away from the hubs
of energy consumption. The ability and willingness of OPEC members to expand
capacity and production is one of the main factors determining the dynamics of
the oil market.
a
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011. These reserve estimates are compiled from official
sources and other third-party data, which may not be based on proved reserves as defined by SEC rules.
*Includes biofuels.
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030.
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
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16
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Non-OECD economies drive consumption growth
(billion tonnes of oil equivalent)
Non-OECD
OECD
Renewables*
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
Above An engineer on
board the BP oil tanker
British Gannet. At the
end of 2011, we had 53
international vessels.
Below The control
room at BP’s Atlantic
LNG facility in Trinidad,
where BP has been
operating since 1961.