Microsoft 2009 Annual Report Download - page 39

Download and view the complete annual report

Please find page 39 of the 2009 Microsoft annual report below. You can navigate through the pages in the report by either clicking on the pages listed below, or by using the keyword search tool below to find specific information within the annual report.

Page out of 84

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9
  • 10
  • 11
  • 12
  • 13
  • 14
  • 15
  • 16
  • 17
  • 18
  • 19
  • 20
  • 21
  • 22
  • 23
  • 24
  • 25
  • 26
  • 27
  • 28
  • 29
  • 30
  • 31
  • 32
  • 33
  • 34
  • 35
  • 36
  • 37
  • 38
  • 39
  • 40
  • 41
  • 42
  • 43
  • 44
  • 45
  • 46
  • 47
  • 48
  • 49
  • 50
  • 51
  • 52
  • 53
  • 54
  • 55
  • 56
  • 57
  • 58
  • 59
  • 60
  • 61
  • 62
  • 63
  • 64
  • 65
  • 66
  • 67
  • 68
  • 69
  • 70
  • 71
  • 72
  • 73
  • 74
  • 75
  • 76
  • 77
  • 78
  • 79
  • 80
  • 81
  • 82
  • 83
  • 84

PAGE 39
QUANTATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
RISKS
We are exposed to economic risk from foreign currency exchange rates, interest rates, credit risk, equity prices, and
commodity prices. A portion of these risks is hedged, but they may impact results of operations cash flows and
financial condition.
Foreign Currency. Certain forecasted transactions, assets, and liabilities are exposed to foreign currency risk. We
monitor our foreign currency exposures daily and use hedges where practicable to offset the risks and maximize the
economic effectiveness of our foreign currency positions. Principal currencies hedged include the euro, Japanese
yen, British pound, and Canadian dollar.
Interest Rate. Our fixed-income portfolio is diversified across credit sectors and maturities, consisting primarily of
investment-grade securities. The credit risk and average maturity of the fixed-income portfolio is managed to achieve
economic returns that correlate to certain global and domestic fixed-income indices. In addition, we use “To Be
Announced” forward purchase commitments of mortgage-backed assets to gain exposure to agency and mortgage-
backed securities.
Equity. Our equity portfolio consists of global, developed, and emerging market securities that are subject to
market price risk. We manage the securities relative to certain global and domestic indices and expect their
economic risk and return to correlate with these indices.
Commodity. We use broad-based commodity exposures to enhance portfolio returns and facilitate portfolio
diversification. Our investment portfolio has exposure to a variety of commodities, including precious metals, energy,
and grain. We manage these exposures relative to global commodity indices and expect their economic risk and
return to correlate with these indices.
VALUE-AT-RISK
We use a value-at-risk (“VaR”) model to estimate and quantify our market risks. VaR is the expected loss, for a given
confidence level, in fair value of our portfolio due to adverse market movements over a defined time horizon. The
VaR model is not intended to represent actual losses in fair value, including determinations of other-than-temporary
losses in fair value in accordance with U.S. GAAP, but is used as a risk estimation and management tool. The
distribution of the potential changes in total market value of all holdings is computed based on the historical
volatilities and correlations among foreign currency exchange rates, interest rates, equity prices, and commodity
prices, assuming normal market conditions.
The VaR is calculated as the total loss that will not be exceeded at the 97.5 percentile confidence level or,
alternatively stated, the losses could exceed the VaR in 25 out of 1,000 cases. Several risk factors are not captured
in the model, including liquidity risk, operational risk, and legal risk.
The following table sets forth the one-day VaR for substantially all of our positions as of June 30, 2009 and 2008
and for the year ended June 30, 2009:
(In millions)
Year Ended June 30, 2009
Risk Categories June 30, 2009 June 30, 2008 Average
High Low
Foreign currency $ 68 $100 $53
$ 99 $20
Interest rate 42 34 28
43 17
Equity 157 45 98
158 45
Commodity 16 7 10
16 6
Total one-day VaR for the combined risk categories was $211 million at June 30, 2009 and $123 million at
June 30, 2008. The total VaR is 25% less at June 30, 2009, and 34% less at June 30, 2008, than the sum of the
separate risk categories in the above table due to the diversification benefit of the overall portfolio.