Siemens 2009 Annual Report Download - page 149

61
 Managing Board statements, Independent auditors’ report, Additional information
95 Net assets position 97 Report on post-balance sheet date events
98 Risk report
108 Information required pursuant to
§315 (4) HGB of the German Commercial
Code and explanatory report
114 Compensation report
114 Report on expected developments
put for calendar year 2009. The world economy was still regis-
tered 2% growth in calendar year 2008.
From a regional perspective, the sharpest GDP downturn in
2009, at minus 3.6%, was recorded in the region Europe, Com-
monwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.), Africa, Middle
East, the largest of Siemens’ three reporting regions. In the
previous year, this region grew by 1.9%. Germany ’s GDP, which
was up by 1.3% in 2008, is provisionally set to contract by 4.8%
during 2009. The decline in exports and falling machinery and
equipment spending had a particular impact here, whereas
private consumption, underpinned by state-run programs
such as short-time working benefits and auto scrappage
schemes, held up. The economic crisis has had a particularly
severe effect on a number of countries in Central and Eastern
Europe, as well as Russia, which suffered as a result of both the
crisis in the financial markets and lower raw material prices. In
the wake of lower commodity prices, but also in part due to the
crisis in real estate, growth in the Middle East, which was still
running at 6.1% in 2008, virtually came to a standstill in 2009.
In the Americas region, IHS Global Insight expects that a
growth rate of 1.2% during calendar year 2008 will be followed
by a 2.4% fall in GDP in 2009. The U.S., where growth had al-
ready fallen back to just 0.4% during the preceding year, is
provisionally set to register a decline in GDP of 2.5% for the cur-
rent calendar year. There are, nevertheless, a number of indi-
cators pointing to economic improvement: The housing mar-
ket is stabilizing, demand for investment goods and exports is
up, and industrial production is starting to increase once more
in a number of sectors of the economy. Essentially, this return
to more positive development has been spurred on by a state-
sponsored economic stimulus program and the rescue mea-
sures taken in the banking sector, which have markedly eased
the situation in the financial markets.
Asia, Australia is the only region that continued to grow, al-
beit modestly, even in the midst of the global economic crisis.
For this region IHS Global Insight is projecting a 0.8% growth
in GDP in 2009, compared with a figure of 3.6% during the pre-
vious year. Meanwhile China’s growth continues almost un-
abated, with lower exports largely offset by the state’s eco-
nomic stimulus packages. For calendar year 2009 IHS Global
Insight forecasts that China will grow by 8.1%, against 9% in
2008. India, too, is still growing significantly faster than the
region as a whole. Both private consumption and capital
spending continue to provide positive impetus for growth. In
2009 India’s GDP is set to grow by a provisional figure of 5.6%,
after a 6.1% increase during calendar year 2008.
For Siemens, as a supplier of plant and infrastructure equip-
ment, the course of gross fixed investment, as a component of
GDP, is of major importance. Its development is particularly
vulnerable to cyclical fluctuations in the economy. IHS Global
Insight anticipates that after growth of 1.8% in 2008, gross
fixed investment will decline by 6.4% during 2009. The two re-
gions generating our highest sales figures, Europe, C.I.S.,
Africa and Middle East, and the Americas, have been particu-
larly severely impacted here. In the Europe, C.I.S., Africa,
Middle East region, the gross fixed investment figure will fall
by a provisional 10.9% year on year in 2009, while the Ameri-
cas region is expected to record a decline by as much as 11.5%
during 2009. Only the Asia, Australia region is expected to
have bucked the trend in 2009, registering a 3.4% increase in
gross fixed investment over the previous year’s level.
IHS Global Insight expects the value added manufacturing, in
which Siemens operates, to decline by 9.3 % in 2009 compared
to 2008.
World real GDP growth (in %)
     
1 According to IHS Global Insight as of October, 14, 2009; growth rates provided by
calendar year.
2 Estimate for calendar year 2009.
3.5
4.1 4.0
2.0
(2.1)
B25G002_E