Siemens 2010 Annual Report Download - page 139

113 Report on post-balance sheet date events
114 Report on expected developments and associated
material opportunities and risks
128 Information required pursuant to § () and
§ () HGB and explanatory report
133 Information required pursuant to § () and
§ () no.  HGB and explanatory report
135 Compensation and declaration pursuant to §a HGB
135 Additional information for supplemental
financial measures
138 Siemens AG (Discussion on basis of HGB)
147 Consolidated Financial Statements
261 Additional information

ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
Worldwide economic environment
Following the most serious economic downturn since the end
of the Second World War – which in  led to a contraction
of .% in global gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms
according to figures from IHS Global Insight – the global
economy saw a recovery in the first half of  that was faster
and more dynamic than forecasted. The pace of growth is slow-
ing slightly in the second half of the year as government fiscal
stimulus packages are winding down and the boost from the
restocking of inventories tails off. IHS Global Insight is predict-
ing overall growth of .% in global GDP for .
From a regional perspective, the Europe, Commonwealth of
Independent States (C.I.S.), Africa, Middle East region –
which among our three reporting regions reported the sharp-
est downturn in gross domestic product in  – is also expe-
riencing the slowest growth in  with a forecasted increase
in GDP of .%. Within this region, Middle Eastern and African
countries are seeing the most rapid growth. In , many of
these countries are benefiting from a recovery in commodity
prices. The countries in our Russia / Central Asia Cluster were hit
particularly hard by the economic downturn and are recover-
ing gradually. In the case of Russia, IHS Global Insight is fore-
casting growth of .% in  following a .% drop in GDP in
. However, the positive impact from commodity price
gains compared with  is being tempered by the delayed
consequences of the financial crisis and the effects of an ex-
tended period of exceptionally high temperatures and drought.
Within Europe, there is a significant divergence in economic
trends. Whereas most of the countries in central and eastern
Europe are slowly recovering from the economic downturn,
economies in some of the southern and western European
countries impacted by the sovereign debt crisis are stagnating
or contracting. IHS Global Insight is expecting German GDP to
grow by .% this year compared with a fall of .% in .
The German economy, which last year suffered from the sharp
downturn in global trade, is benefiting in  from strong
international demand for high-quality capital equipment. De-
spite the end of economic stimulus packages, automotive ex-
ports have also seen a substantial upturn in , driven par-
ticularly by strong demand from Asia. A number of other Euro-
pean countries that are closely linked to the German export
industry are likewise benefiting from the economic expansion
in Germany.
In the Americas region, IHS Global Insight is forecasting GDP
growth of .% in  compared with a contraction of .% in
. GDP is expected to climb substantially in the majority of
Latin American countries during . Brazil, which is forecast
to achieve GDP growth of .% in  compared with a slight
fall of .% in , represents a significant growth driver. The
U.S. is providing a somewhat weaker stimulus for growth. After
a .% contraction in U.S. GDP in , IHS Global Insight pre-
dicts that the situation will reverse in  with growth of the
same percentage, with growth slowing noticeably during the
second half of the year compared to the first half. Any upward
trend in consumer spending has been extremely muted owing
to rising unemployment and a greater proportion of disposable
income allocated to savings. The problems in real estate mar-
kets – which triggered the global economic downturn – have
been exacerbated again by the end of tax breaks. Growth in the
U.S. is also being held back by a substantial current-account
deficit as imports rise faster than exports.
GDP in the Asia, Australia region, which managed to expand
even during the economic downturn, is expected to climb
sharply in  with growth forecast at .%. This boost to
growth was initially driven by fiscal stimulus packages. How-
ever, exports have also picked up again as the global economy
has recovered. In addition, economic growth is being given
further momentum by rising consumer demand in the emerg-
ing markets in this region. With regard to China, IHS Global
Insight is predicting growth of .% for , which is above
the .% GDP growth achieved in . China is therefore prov-
ing to be an engine of growth for the global economy, although
the significant growth in the first half of  is expected to
ease off during the second half of the year as the boost from
World real GDP growth (in % compared to prior year)
     
1 According to Global Insight Inc. as of October 15, 2010;
growth rates provided by calendar year.
2 Estimate for calendar year 2010.
4.2 4.1
1.8
(1.8)
3.8